February Lean Hogs pulled back towards support at 63.325 early in the week as Chinese jawboning about nothing to see here caused traders to lighten long positions. Traders hadn’t seen the Chinese increasing imports and were worried that maybe they did have control over the African swine fever as they claimed. Show me the imports! Well guess what …. Thursday’s …
MARCH US 10y note Option Strategy
The MARCH US 10y note in my opinion and based on what the Fed has said, has the potential to rally further because of lack of inflation while wages have risen, also weakening housing and autos. The potential for the Fed to not raise rates further after the December 18/19 meeting and indicate 2 instead of 3 rate hikes for …
AG TIME – G Meeting
This weekend should be market moving one way or the other. Sunday evening could be interesting. President Trump will be meeting with President Xi. It is my thought that a window of opportunity will present itself. Trump, I believe, wants a deal. Xi I believe needs a deal but doesn’t want to look like he needs one. If a verbal …
New Beginning Next Month?
One month left in the calendar trading year and we’re still near levels which may be viewed as too cheap to sell yet there’s no urgency to buy………………………..Spreads are wide enough to reflect the comfortable situation the world is in for soy products and feed grains yet, wheat spreads may have some play in the inter and intra markets as …
AG TIME
Overall a quiet day. anticipation regarding the meeting this weekend between Trump and Xi. My belief is that they will agree in general on some changes. the implementation will take some time. This will open the door for the Chinese to buy US products again. this could offer a rally. If so the 2019 needs to be sold at higher …
Hopes and Dreams from Argentina
Some traders are still uncomfortable with the Chicago wheat contract and the ability of the issuer to put out stocks laden with vomitoxin levels which are deemed by the FDA (Federal Drug Administration) as unfit for human consumption… for raw wheat the old limit was 2 ppm and the limit for finished products is 1 ppm…………………..this may inherently …
Livestock Report
Cattle markets remain stagnant with February Live Cattle continuing to trade within the November 21st trading range (121.475 – 119.80) and January Feeder Cattle pulling back to the 200 DMA (147.70). It is also within its November 21st trading range (150.00 – 147.05). Cash markets remain quiet with limited trade at 116.00 for live cattle and at 183.00 for dressed …
AG TIME – Really Something
I am enjoying the fact that the soy is back above $9.00 march forward. This is important. The current price plus the US one time payment of approx $1.60 bolsters the balance sheet. I believe the market (soy) is historically way overpriced. Given the carry, domestic and global, this is high priced. I believe the market will start to suggest …
March Sugar Option Strategy
It is my opinion that sugar will be further pressured by stronger production numbers and shifting cane away from ethanol production to sugar use adding to solid supply and pressuring sugar prices lower. March 2019 Sugar Futures trading $12.34 last as of this writing, I am looking for Sugar to break lower to the $11.50/11.25 area, possibly testing $11.00 Consider …
Adjusting Chicago/Kansas City/Minneapolis
Spread differences between Chicago, Kansas City and Minneapolis wheat have been historically skewed the past few months…………………………some say that the speculative community got caught being long Kansas City and short Chicago which allowed for Kansas City to slip to a very large and unnatural discount to Chicago this month……………………………..In its natural state Kansas City is typically 15 to 20 …